{"id":26794,"date":"2016-01-21T05:00:07","date_gmt":"2016-01-21T12:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tested-neuron.flywheelsites.com\/?p=26794"},"modified":"2016-01-20T23:32:06","modified_gmt":"2016-01-21T06:32:06","slug":"when-unicorns-become-unicorpses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/","title":{"rendered":"When Unicorns Become Unicorpses"},"content":{"rendered":"

The current usage of the word<\/strong> unicorn<\/a> makes me tired.\u00a0I could rant about it for a while, but that would make me tired of myself ranting about it.<\/p>\n

Instead, I\u2019d like to focus on a word that appeared a month ago by Aileen Lee in\u00a0Welcome To The Unicorn Club, 2015: Learning From Billion-Dollar Companies<\/a><\/em>.\u00a0<\/em>That word is unicorpse<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"Unicorpse<\/a><\/p>\n

From section #6 in Aileen\u2019s post:<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven how much capital our private companies have raised in the past few years, most likely have cash to fund 2-4+ more years of runway.\u00a0 If private capital is no longer available in the future, these companies will seek a public offering or acquisition. Some will demonstrate strategically justifiable metrics and have fantastic \u2018up round\u2019 exits; others may see liquidation preferences kick in which will negatively impact founders and employees; others may fulfill the adage \u201cIPO is the new down round\u201d<\/strong>, which has been the case for more than half of the public companies on our list. Or worse, some may become \u201cUnicorpses<\/strong>\u201d :).\u201d<\/em><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

The word showed up again in Nick Bilton\u2019s Vanity Fair article\u00a0Is Silicon Valley in Another Bubble…and What Could Burst It?<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cIndeed, contrary to Kupor\u2019s argument at the Rosewood, it is this later-stage investing\u2014with its shortage of regulation, tremendous envy, and Schadenfreude\u2014that worries many bubble-watchers. \u201cWe basically doubled the number of unicorns in the past year and a half,\u201d says Aileen Lee, the founder of Cowboy Ventures, who has herself become a mythic creature in the Valley after coining the term. \u201cBut a lot of these are paper unicorns, so their valuations may not be real for a while.\u201d Others, Lee acknowledged, may never see their balance sheets add enough zeros to justify the title. They will be given a new sobriquet: \u201cunicorpse.\u201d<\/em><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

We basically doubled the number of unicorns in the past year and a half.<\/i> Tweet This Quote<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Erin Griffith had a perfect chance to use unicorpse\u00a0in her article\u00a0VCs have \u2018Dying Unicorn\u2019 lists, but they aren\u2019t sharing them<\/a><\/em>, but she missed the layup\u00a0and went with dying unicorn instead.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut amid all the unicorns getting their horns, investors have warned of \u201cdead unicorns.\u201d In March, investor Bill Gurley made headlines<\/a> with his pronouncement that \u201ca complete absence of fear\u201d would lead to dead unicorns this year. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen warned in a tweetstorm<\/a> that startups with high burn rates would \u201cvaporize.\u201d Last week Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff also predicted dead unicorns<\/a> as startups seem to focus more on their valuations than their customers.\u201d<\/em><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff predicts dead unicorns, as startups seem to focus more on their valuations than their customers.<\/i> Tweet This Quote<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Now, I don\u2019t blame Aileen for the word unicorn. And I credit her for unicorpse, which I expect will be a lot more prevalent in the future. It\u2019s not, in Bilton\u2019s language, schadenfreude<\/a> on my part. Instead, I believe\u00a0that by focusing on the concept of a unicorn, we are paying attention to exactly the wrong thing.<\/p>\n

I once simultaneously sat on the boards of three public companies that were all worth more than $1 billion. One went bankrupt, one was acquired for $0.14\/share ($40m), and one was acquired for $0.025\/share ($25m). I think you can call\u00a0two of them as unicorpses and one of them a unicorpse with nothing left but dust where the bones should have been.<\/p>\n

By focusing on the concept of a unicorn, we are paying attention to exactly the wrong thing.<\/i> Tweet This Quote<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Don\u2019t feel bad for me. I once was on the board of\u00a0a company that had generated lifetime revenue of $1.5m and was\u00a0acquired by a public company for $280m of stock which, by the time the deal closed, was worth around $1.1 billion. Two years later, the public company (which at one point was worth over $30b) was bankrupt.<\/p>\n

None of these companies were ultimately worth\u00a0$1 billion or more. Each of them stumbled for different reasons, but a lack of obsessive focus on product and customer was a big part of why they vaporized. They assumed, regardless of how much capital they had, that they could raise more. They didn\u2019t focus on building a long term, sustainable business that had a huge protective moat<\/a>\u00a0around it. I don\u2019t care how disruptive you are\u2014if you don\u2019t build a moat, someone is going to come disrupt you.<\/p>\n

It doesn’t matter how disruptive you are\u2014if you don\u2019t build a moat, someone is going to disrupt you.<\/i> Tweet This Quote<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I\u2019m encountering an increasing number of companies with burn rates in the stratosphere. I get uncomfortable when the net burn rate for a company goes above $500k\/month. In fast growing companies with a balance sheet > $25m I can stomach a $1m\/month net burn. But when I see $2m\/month net burn rates, I vomit. And a $4m\/month net burn rate, even if you have $100m on your balance sheet, makes me physically ill.<\/p>\n

As an investor, would I rather own 30% of a company that is acquired for $300m in cash that had only raised $10m or 2% of a company with a paper value of $1b and $200m of liquidation preferences? As a founder, would you rather own 10% of the company that sold for $300m in cash or 2% of a company with a paper value of $1b and $200m of liquidation preferences? There is a lot more in the calculation of value, especially who gets what, than that $1 billion unicorn thingy.<\/p>\n

Let me say it in a different way:<\/p>\n

There is nothing special or valuable about a $1 billion valuation. It’s just a number.<\/i> Tweet This Quote<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I\u2019m not predicting a bubble<\/a>\u00a0or anything else<\/a>. I\u2019m not negative about where we are at in the cycle. I hope to live another 50 years, as I think this is going to be the most interesting point in the history of our species up to this point.<\/p>\n

But I do think it would be useful for more founders and investors to ponder unicorpses and spend less of their energy talking about, and trying to become, unicorns\u2014lest you one day find yourself a pile of dusty bones.<\/p>\n

\n

A version of this post originally appeared on Brad’s blog<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The obsession amongst both founders and investors with becoming a “unicorn” company is leading to the overvaluation of startups in Silicon Valley.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":92,"featured_media":26890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[476,1527,1552,1528,2017],"tags":[2643,2097,2642,2640,2641,2639,2213,2644],"class_list":["post-26794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","category-debunking","category-fundraising","category-scaling","category-what-funders-look-for","tag-determining-value","tag-equity","tag-founder-focus","tag-investors-look-for","tag-overvaluation","tag-unicorns","tag-valuation","tag-what-to-look-for"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Unicorns Become Unicorpses - UNREASONABLE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The obsession amongst both founders and investors with becoming a "unicorn" company is leading to the overvaluation of startups in Silicon Valley.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Debunking "Unicorns": Determing the Real Value of a Startup\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The obsession amongst both founders and investors with becoming a "unicorn" company is leading to the overvaluation of startups in Silicon Valley.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Unreasonable\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-01-21T12:00:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2000\/01\/unicorpse-3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brad Feld\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/twitter.com\/bfeld\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Brad Feld\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":[\"Article\",\"BlogPosting\"],\"@id\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Brad Feld\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/#\/schema\/person\/6e348e8f3ea37d846ecae78dff261a09\"},\"headline\":\"When Unicorns Become Unicorpses\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-01-21T12:00:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/\"},\"wordCount\":1052,\"commentCount\":3,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2000\/01\/unicorpse-3.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"determining value\",\"equity\",\"founder focus\",\"investors look for\",\"overvaluation\",\"unicorns\",\"valuation\",\"what to look for\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Article\",\"Debunking\",\"Fundraising\",\"Scaling\",\"What Funders Look For\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/unreasonablegroup.com\/articles\/when-unicorns-become-unicorpses\/\",\"name\":\"When Unicorns Become Unicorpses - 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